Porter Transborder 1Q 2010


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YTZ-MDW: 25.7%

YTZ-BOS: 27.0%

YTZ-EWR: 49.1%

YTZ-MYR: 67.8%

Transborder system: 36.1%

Transborder ASM's as a % of total: 31.1%

Domestic L/F: 52%

With a system belf of 54.6% in the first quarter and transborder loads 18.5% pts below BELF, it's pretty clear the transborder experiment in hemmoraging cash.

Don't get too excited about MYR. It represented about .4% of Porter's total capacity in 1Q. Only EWR in March came close to system BELF, with a 53.1% l/f.

To put it another way, AMR was recently placed on the Titanic Watch. Even with the -10% operating margin, (including interest expense), they recorded in 1Q 2010, their l/f was 7.8% below their BELF. The collective industry operated 3.2% pts below BELF in the first quarter.

Porter's transborder loads were 18.5% pts below their system BELF which makes it pretty easy to understand how they managed to generate the worst operating margins on the continent, (-16.1%), and why the IPO was DOA.

There are those who will suggest that Porter's transborder BELF is far lower than their domestic BELF.

This could be the case, but if 31% of Porter's capacity has a BELF "well below" the system BELF of 54.6%, then simple algebra can pretty accurately calculate what the BELF would be for the balance, (ie domestic), portion of Porter's network. It'll be a lot higher than 54.6% and note that the domestic l/f in 1Q was 52%. It still loses money.

Sooner or later, Porter is going to have to undertake a reengineeering of their business model. It's pretty clear the current design is very seriously flawed.

:cool:

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Break Even Load Factor

greater Toronto flight attendant

good to fly anywhere

got to fly away

oh I bet there's lots of choices

But thanks for explaining belf, you learn something here everyday.

:cool::cool::cool:

Edited by manwest
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YTZ-MDW: 25.7%

YTZ-BOS: 27.0%

YTZ-EWR: 49.1%

YTZ-MYR: 67.8%

Transborder system: 36.1%

Transborder ASM's as a % of total: 31.1%

Domestic L/F: 52%

With a system belf of 54.6% in the first quarter and transborder loads 18.5% pts below BELF, it's pretty clear the transborder experiment in hemmoraging cash.

Don't get too excited about MYR. It represented about .4% of Porter's total capacity in 1Q. Only EWR in March came close to system BELF, with a 53.1% l/f.

To put it another way, AMR was recently placed on the Titanic Watch. Even with the -10% operating margin, (including interest expense), they recorded in 1Q 2010, their l/f was 7.8% below their BELF. The collective industry operated 3.2% pts below BELF in the first quarter.

Porter's transborder loads were 18.5% pts below their system BELF which makes it pretty easy to understand how they managed to generate the worst operating margins on the continent, (-16.1%), and why the IPO was DOA.

There are those who will suggest that Porter's transborder BELF is far lower than their domestic BELF.

This could be the case, but if 31% of Porter's capacity has a BELF "well below" the system BELF of 54.6%, then simple algebra can pretty accurately calculate what the BELF would be for the balance, (ie domestic), portion of Porter's network. It'll be a lot higher than 54.6% and note that the domestic l/f in 1Q was 52%. It still loses money.

Sooner or later, Porter is going to have to undertake a reengineeering of their business model. It's pretty clear the current design is very seriously flawed.

:cool:

Apparently, one of Porters forte has been in the financing department. Bean has been singing the Porter demise song for a few years now. Yet the little airline just keeps on flying. With a bit of introspection Bean, what did you miss? Did you suspect their start up capital to have been lower? Did you expect the investors to pull out in a more expedited fashion? To read you on this board, I always got the feeling that you expected Porter to fail in a few months. Why such an overshoot on the prognosis? :scratchchin:

As long as Porter is efficient at acquiring financing for this venture,it can go on forever. As far as IPOs are concerned, it will be interesting to see if they have another kick at the can in the future.

Cheers

Edited by mrlupin
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Apparently, one of Porters forte has been in the financing department. Bean has been singing the Porter demise song for a few years now. Yet the little airline just keeps on flying. With a bit of introspection Bean, what did you miss? Did you suspect their start up capital to have been lower? Did you expect the investors to pull out in a more expedited fashion? To read you on this board, I always got the feeling that you expected Porter to fail in a few months. Why such an overshoot on the prognosis? :scratchchin:

As long as Porter is efficient at acquiring financing for this venture,it can go on forever. As far as IPOs are concerned, it will be interesting to see if they have another kick at the can in the future.

Cheers

I think Bean has said all along something like "show how much money they have and I will tell you how long they can keep flying". It seems he was correct when he daid early on that their model does not support being profitable.

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I think Bean has said all along something like "show how much money they have and I will tell you how long they can keep flying". It seems he was correct when he daid early on that their model does not support being profitable.

:cool:

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