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Bean are you now comparing Sunwing to a “double your money in 90 days” con artist from the 20’s? If so your argument is now based on a pyramid scheme. In order for the scheme to stay intact Sunwing would have to be using advance bookings to pay past debts. Care to prove it?

Zero latitude should be shown to airlines working off credit. I wonder when AirCanada is going to pay NavCan and the Airports what they owed prior to CCAA? NavCanada wrote off more then 20 million alone. Well managed companies should not have to shoulder mismanaged ones let alone pay a portion of their bills while competing with them.

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In the hole for $90.7M ! To put things in context does anyone know much Canada 3000 had left (assets-liabilities) when they shut down ?

MC

Enough to bring most of the passengers home and to give us a paycheque at the end of the month for the nine days we worked in November. They didn't go bankrupt, they just shutdown and THEN went bankrupt after they paid us.

They didn't have to do that (give us a final paycheque) - they could simply have declared bankruptcy (not even asking for protection), shutdown and left the passengers where they were. So that was a little bit of a Class Act on the part of the BoD that put us in the bad situation in the first place.

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I wonder when AirCanada is going to pay NavCan and the Airports what they owed prior to CCAA? NavCanada wrote off more then 20 million alone.

Those debts are long gone - they don't exist anymore. That's what emerging from CCAA is all about - the creditors have to agree on taking less than they are owed, then write off the rest.

That's the risk for any company dealing with any other company when credit is involved.

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Bean are you now comparing Sunwing to a “double your money in 90 days” con artist from the 20’s? If so your argument is now based on a pyramid scheme. In order for the scheme to stay intact Sunwing would have to be using advance bookings to pay past debts. Care to prove it?

Zero latitude should be shown to airlines working off credit. I wonder when AirCanada is going to pay NavCan and the Airports what they owed prior to CCAA? NavCanada wrote off more then 20 million alone. Well managed companies should not have to shoulder mismanaged ones let alone pay a portion of their bills while competing with them.

Can you prove they aren't? cool26.gif

Ever wonder why the whole kit and kaboodle is for sale for just $21m? And what exactly are you buying for $21m? And why isn't anyone leaping at it?

Maybe because for $21m, all you get is the right to incur losses coming out of the ying yang once the accounting is normalized to industry standards. There are no assets of any consequences at Icarus Air.

WJ went public with 10 aircraft and the market cap / company valuation at the IPO value was about $250m. That's the difference between a company with verifiable earnings and one that simply talks about "revenue growth" with no indication of how they account for various things.

How much do you want to bet that a huge proportion of various expenses are capitalized rather than put in the P & L? It's the oldest trick in the book for these sorts of outfits.

Every privately held airline since the dawn of time has said it is doing great up to the very last day of operations. Nationair, Intair, Canada 3000, CanJet 1 & 2, Greyhound, JetsGo, VistaJet, Zoom etc etc. They all ended up financing todays bills, (for costs incurred yesterday), using tomorrows, (or in most cases, next months) sales.

I don't see anything to suggest this is not the case at Icarus Air. I can tell you that if I was running it, and the margins were legitimately what they claim they are, I wouldn't be selling the the venture for a paltry $21m. I'd be biding my time and taking it public at the first opportunity.

cool26.gif

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Can you prove they aren't?  cool26.gif

Ever wonder why the whole kit and kaboodle is for sale for just $21m?  And what exactly are you buying for $21m?  And why isn't anyone leaping at it? 

Maybe because for $21m, all you get is the right to incur losses coming out of the ying yang once the accounting is normalized to industry standards.  There are no assets of any consequences at Icarus Air.

WJ went public with 10 aircraft and the market cap / company valuation at the IPO value was about $250m.  That's the difference between a company with verifiable earnings and one that simply talks about "revenue growth" with no indication of how they account for various things.

How much do you want to bet that a huge proportion of various expenses are capitalized rather than put in the P & L? It's the oldest trick in the book for these sorts of outfits.

Every privately held airline since the dawn of time has said it is doing great up to the very last day of operations. Nationair, Intair, Canada 3000,  CanJet 1 & 2, Greyhound, JetsGo, VistaJet, Zoom etc etc.  They all ended up financing todays bills, (for costs incurred yesterday), using tomorrows, (or in most cases, next months) sales.

I don't see anything to suggest this is not the case at Icarus Air. I can tell you that if I was running it, and the margins were legitimately what they claim they are, I wouldn't be selling the the venture for a paltry $21m.  I'd be biding my time and taking it public at the first opportunity.

cool26.gif

Bean, I used to enjoy reading what you said.

You have lost me as you refuse to accept the fact that SW is not WJ.

I am glad that you assure me and others that SW is indeed for sale at the paltry sum of 21m.

Again and again you speak of market cap and your beloved WJ. It is not the same. I am starting to wonder if you are even listening - you seem to have all the answers.

Here is how it works - very slowly....

XYZ School board enrolls 3,459 students for the fall term.

XYZ Township contacts Laidlaw and orders 18.765 buses for the fall/winter session.

Laidlaw provides 18.765 buses.

Easy enough?

Can we please put to rest this comparison between SW and anyone else other than Transat? That is the only check we have.

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Bean, I used to enjoy reading what you said.

You have lost me as you refuse to accept the fact that SW is not WJ.

I am glad that you assure me and others that SW is indeed for sale at the paltry sum of 21m.

Again and again you speak of market cap and your beloved WJ. It is not the same. I am starting to wonder if you are even listening - you seem to have all the answers.

Here is how it works - very slowly....

XYZ School board enrolls 3,459 students for the fall term.

XYZ Township contacts Laidlaw and orders 18.765 buses for the fall/winter session.

Laidlaw provides 18.765 buses.

Easy enough?

Can we please put to rest this comparison between SW and anyone else other than Transat? That is the only check we have.

If only the business was as simple as your comparison. If it were, 95% of startups wouldn't fail.

Alas, it is considerably more complicated than you make it out to be.

I've never a seen an airline anywhere that has survived long term by financing the entire operation out of forward sales.

There is no compelling argument to suggest that something has occured in the marketplace that makes this model permanently viable. If anything, its the opposite.

In order to make the model come close to working, you need to fly between 385 and 400 hours per month, every month.

That's easy to do from Dec 15th to the week after Easter, and from June 15th to Sept 15th, for any airline operating in North America and Europe.

It's not so easy to do the other 6 months of the year and it's in those times when the these outfits forward sell everything they can get their hands on to squeak through. The slightest blip in demand and the deck of cards comes tumbling down.

Watch and see what happens. Same movie, different actors.

cool26.gif

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Nothing that you could tell me is worth more than a nickle.

A nickle buys you 3.6 seconds of advice at my current consulting fee. Dags is probably about the same. biggrin.gif

I recall telling some people a few things over the past 14 years that have resulted in those people, and others, becoming spectacularly wealthy. So sorry you weren't one of them.

Then there were folks who listened and as a result didnt commit to deals where they would have lost tens of millions of dollars.

Then there are guys with initials like RB and CS, who are already worth billions who were quite interested in what I have to say because they wanted to make a difference in peoples lives, and make a few more bucks along the way.

Suit yourself.

cool.gif

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A nickle buys you 3.6 seconds of advice at my current consulting fee. Dags is probably about the same. biggrin.gif

I recall telling some people a few things over the past 14 years that have resulted in those people, and others, becoming spectacularly wealthy. So sorry you weren't one of them.

The there were folks who listened and as a result didnt commit to deals where they would have lost tens of millions of dollars.

Then there are guys with initials like RB and CS, who are already worth billions who were quite interested in what I have to say because they wanted to make a difference in peoples lives, and make a few more bucks along the way.

Suit yourself.

cool.gif

It has been my experience that if you have to tell people how valuable you are.....you probably aren't.

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I am hoping this may help some of the ZOOM pilots who now find themselves in the same position as I am - unemployed. First of all, it really is sad to see another airline go into liquidation. It really does beg the question, what does it take to run a successful and viable airline operation in Canada? I wouldn't even venture a guess.

Anyhow, back to the thrust of my reply. I have been gainfully unemployed for the past 5 months here in Asia. There have been plenty of opportunities but none that I was ready for. I am now in final stages of the assessment process with a Chinese carrier. Let me say this: they have come a long way, in a very short time. For the ZOOM pilots, I know that that Hainan Airlines are still actively looking for B767/757 Captains - perhaps even Air China. If you have other aircraft ratings, China also needs A320 Captains, B744 Captains and A330 Captains. For those that may want a basing Seattle, Vancouver, Beijing and Europe (plenty of choices) with very good pay and overall working conditions, then take a look at a few of the recruitment companies that have contracts for the Mainland Chinese companies; Parc Aviation, Rishworth Aviation, Brooksfield Aviation to name a few.

Best of luck to all that have lost their jobs.

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It has been my experience that if you have to tell people how valuable you are.....you probably aren't.

As much as most probably think he could couch his views with a little more humility the fact is that the one who purports himself as Bean does have a track record of success in the real world if he is in fact who we think he is.

The messenger can be caustic but the message is on the money.

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$50 an hour? Highly overpaid.

Okay, you're in fully hissy-fit mode now so show us where he has been wrong?

As Chock said you may not like the messenger but you miss the message at your own peril.

Put up or shut up.

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Hi Mitch

I guess the fact that he put his views out there with respect to some of the recent failures that you did not might be a place to start.

Also having some knowledge of Mexican aviation and knowing something of his role in Carlos Slim's venture I can say he heas been part of a success there.

Again, it is hard to argue with the math of what he says.

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Ok Chock, but he says everyone's going to fail. ...even looking at the stats he'll give you, that means he's going to look right an awful lot of the time. ...but it doesn't make him anything special, does it?

And you know a couple of those he's claimed were on death's door haven't hit that nail yet... Porter's burning at him... (or so it seems)

Or, ...Ok, maybe he's a genius... I'm probably not good at listening when someone blows his own horn as much as he does. I don't know if anyone else doing it for him is going to help...

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