Only The Strong Survive....

[Guest manwest]

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1081034705654&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

[dagger]

So how do you explain how Continental has had more lives than alley cat? Or that America West, once not only a bankrupt airline but one with serious challenges, is not only flying but flourishing?

[Guest manwest]

I am not an airline analyst or airline consultant.......but probably their unions took a big pay cut and the CEO of each of those airlines managed to turn the company around. I believe Continental brought out a performance program for the employees, as the airline lowered its cost, increased its on-time performance, and the staff all....all...worked together towards their goal the company turned around and made a profit and the employees shared the profit, they took pride in who they worked for, provided good customer service, some employees would even coach other employees who were not up to par. And for the other airlines who are no longer with us, what path did they take? I believe AC had bought stock in CO and made a nice profit on it when they sold their stock a few years later.

[Fido]

The smart a$$ approach would be:

TPG was involved in both!!!

The truth is probably a little more deep than that. For both of them there was a strong airline recovery in progress when they got their second start AND they had a lot of co-operation from their employees (unions). I am not sure that Air Canada will get either.

[Don Hudson]

Re "Only the Strong Survive".

No, such neo-darwinian views are inappropriate and mislead understanding of the situation.

Only those free to compete without being hobbled by strict interventionist regulation survive. De-regulation is a phenomena reserved for carriers. For Air Canada, market interventions are the rule.

Yes, "legacy" ways of operating may be outmoded, (although not entirely).

The industry, including its major player Air Canada, cannot switch horses overnight. It is unrealistic to expect it to switch even in a few years.

Is the realistic outcome of the present situation the entire disappearance of Air Canada in favour of "local" (in time) market rules

Given "low-cost" employees with no pensions, would WestJet be truly able to "compete" successfully, profitably, under the exact same conditions, rules, restrictions, route structures, aircraft types, base requirements and passenger expectations which confront Air Canada?

I'm not crying foul here, nor do I whine my question. I'm serious.

What does "Day One" look like?...To WestJet? To the Canadian Government? To shippers, suppliers, holiday-makers, business travellers, freight-handlers, airport people, service industries...etc etc?

The realities are certainly real enough. I doubt if there are doubts in any employee's mind about the potential over the next month.

But who's looking forward to Day One? Day Two? Who's doing the planning and what are those plans? Nobody's talking about it but that's the other side of views held by many here and elsewhere.

Do we collectively know what is being wished for here?

[Don Hudson]

Re "Only the Strong Survive".

No, such neo-darwinian views are inappropriate and mislead understanding of the situation.

Only those free to compete without being hobbled by strict interventionist regulation survive. De-regulation is a phenomena reserved for carriers. For Air Canada, market interventions are the rule.

Yes, "legacy" ways of operating may be outmoded, (although not entirely).

The industry, including its major player Air Canada, cannot switch horses overnight. It is unrealistic to expect it to switch even in a few years.

Is the realistic outcome of the present situation the entire disappearance of Air Canada in favour of "local" (in time) market rules

Given "low-cost" employees with no pensions, would WestJet be truly able to "compete" successfully, profitably, under the exact same conditions, rules, restrictions, route structures, aircraft types, base requirements and passenger expectations which confront Air Canada?

I'm not crying foul here, nor do I whine my question. I'm serious.

What does "Day One" look like?...To WestJet? To the Canadian Government? To shippers, suppliers, holiday-makers, business travellers, freight-handlers, airport people, service industries...etc etc?

The realities are certainly real enough. I doubt if there are doubts in any employee's mind about the potential over the next month.

But who's looking forward to Day One? Day Two? Who's doing the planning and what are those plans? Nobody's talking about it but that's the other side of views held by many here and elsewhere.

Do we collectively know what is being wished for here?

[Don Hudson]

Re the Star's reliably pessimistic view, "Only the Strong Survive".

No, such neo-darwinian views are inappropriate and mislead understanding of the situation.

Only those free to compete without being hobbled by strict interventionist regulation survive. De-regulation is a phenomena reserved for other carriers. For Air Canada, market interventions are the rule. Have been since 1937 and when we paid the Canadian taxpayers (through the government) millions of dollars upon "privatization",the government never stepped back to let the new company be truly "private". The rolled newspaper was always at the ready. When prices were too high AC was over-charging consumers on routes. When lowered, they were predatory. It was no-win then, as now.

Yes, "legacy" ways of operating may be outmoded, (although not entirely).

The industry, including its major player Air Canada, cannot switch horses overnight. It is unrealistic to expect it to switch even in a few years.

Is the realistic outcome of the present situation the entire disappearance of Air Canada in favour of "local" (in time) market rules

Given "low-cost" employees with no pensions, would WestJet be truly able to "compete" successfully, profitably, under the exact same conditions, rules, restrictions, route structures, aircraft types, base requirements and passenger expectations which confront Air Canada?

I'm not crying foul here, nor do I whine my question. I'm serious.

What does "Day One" look like?...To WestJet? To the Canadian Government? To shippers, suppliers, holiday-makers, business travellers, freight-handlers, airport people, service industries...etc etc?

The realities are certainly real enough. I doubt if there are doubts in any employee's mind about the potential over the next month.

But who's looking forward to Day One? Day Two? Who's doing the planning and what are those plans? Nobody's talking about it but that's the other side of views held by many here and elsewhere.

Do we collectively know what is being wished for here?

[Don Hudson]

Manwest;

Thanks for the link.

Re "Only the Strong Survive".

No, such neo-darwinian views are inappropriate and mislead understanding of the situation.

Only those free to compete without being hobbled by strict interventionist regulation survive. De-regulation is a phenomena reserved for carriers. For Air Canada, market interventions are the rule.

Yes, "legacy" ways of operating may be outmoded, (although not entirely).

The industry, including its major player Air Canada, cannot switch horses overnight. It is unrealistic to expect it to switch even in a few years.

Is the realistic outcome of the present situation the entire disappearance of Air Canada under the weight of unilateral heavy restrictions on commerce in favour of "local" (in time) market rules?

Given "low-cost" employees with no pensions, would WestJet be truly able to "compete" successfully, profitably, under the exact same conditions, rules, restrictions, route structures, aircraft types, base requirements and passenger expectations which confront Air Canada?

I'm not crying foul here, nor do I whine my question. I'm serious.

What does "Day One" look like?...To WestJet? To the Canadian Government? To shippers, suppliers, holiday-makers, business travellers, freight-handlers, airport people, service industries...etc etc?

The realities are certainly real enough. I doubt if there are doubts in any employee's mind about the potential over the next month.

But who's looking forward to Day One? Day Two? Who's doing the planning and what are those plans? Nobody's talking about it but that's the other side of views held by many here and elsewhere.

Do we collectively know what is being wished for here?

[Don Hudson]

Manwest;

Thanks for the link.

Re the Star's reliably pessimistic view, "Only the Strong Survive".

No, such neo-darwinian views are inappropriate and mislead understanding of the situation.

Only those free to compete without being hobbled by strict interventionist regulation survive. De-regulation is a phenomena reserved for other carriers.

For Air Canada, market interventions are the rule. Have been since 1937 and when we paid the Canadian taxpayers (through the government) millions of dollars upon "privatization",the government never stepped back to let the new company be truly "private". The rolled newspaper was always at the ready. When prices were too high AC was over-charging consumers on routes. When lowered, they were predatory. It was no-win then, as now.

Yes, "legacy" ways of operating may be outmoded, (although not entirely).

The industry, including its major player Air Canada, cannot switch horses overnight. It is unrealistic to expect it to switch even in a few years.

Is the realistic outcome of the present situation the entire disappearance of Air Canada under unilateral, heavy restrictions on its commerce in favour of "local" (in time) market rules?

Given "low-cost" employees with no pensions, would WestJet be truly able to "compete" successfully, profitably, under the exact same conditions, rules, restrictions, route structures, aircraft types, base requirements and passenger expectations which confront Air Canada?

I'm not crying foul here, nor do I whine my question. I'm serious.

Yes, Air Canada must accept and deal with the present as it is, and not as we or our corporate and union executive might wish it to be. But think of what is being demanded here...And what is being risked.

What does "Day One" look like?...To WestJet? To the Canadian Government? To shippers, suppliers, holiday-makers, business travellers, freight-handlers, airport people, service industries...etc etc?

The realities are certainly real enough. I doubt if there are doubts in any employee's mind about the potential over the next month.

But who's looking forward to Day One? Day Two? Who's doing the planning and what are those plans? Nobody's talking about it but that's the other side of views held by many here and elsewhere.

Do we collectively know what is being wished for here?

[Guest manwest]

Don:

You are right it cannot be changed overnight. You are also correct that the federal rules that AC has to follow must also be changed, once again this cannot be done overnight. Unfortunately AC does not have the luxury of time in its hands, maybe if it had made some positive moves and lobbied the government lets say two years ago, if management had gone to the employees and stressed the position they saw themselves entering, engaged with productive talks with the unions, maybe just maybe AC would not be in this eleventh hour position. I had hopes several weeks ago that there would be some sort of conciliation between all the parties invloved but that seems to be going nowhere. All you see on this bbs is the inhouse fighting between pilot groups, ame's ramp attendants, counter staff and inflight all going at each other. What basis is that to help an airline survive? All I can say now is good luck to whoever survives this mess.

[Innuendo]

Manwest:

"All you see on this bbs is the inhouse fighting between pilot groups, ame's ramp attendants, counter staff and inflight all going at each other."

Whatever else you have posted on this board that probably, and sadly, is the most accurate you have written.

What IS depressing is that there are outsiders who think this board represents the rest of the employees of the industry.

[Mitch Cronin]

Oi mate?... I had the very same quote singled out and labeled nonsense... Only I couldn't think of a decent way to say it...

I think it may be more a reflection of individual personalities that gives that impression at times... This isn't work, after all, so people can, and do assert their opinions.

In any case that doesn't seem to describe "all [I] see on this BBS". ...maybe it's these damn reading glasses again?

[Mitch Cronin]

Oi mate?... I had the very same quote singled out and labeled nonsense... Only I couldn't think of a decent way to say it...

I think it may be more a reflection of individual personalities that gives that impression at times... This isn't work, after all, so people can, and do assert their opinions.

In any case that doesn't seem to describe "all [I] see on this BBS". ...maybe it's these damn reading glasses again?

Even if it does appear to some that's all we get here, you're quite right to point out that sure doesn't mean it reflects the reality at work.

[Arctic Ace]

Hi Don

Although we have all enjoyed taking pot shots at the government, particularly the minister of transport, through this whole fiasco one must admit that the airline portfolio in Canada is not one I would have wished on my worst enemy. Since deregulation the question of how to handle Air Canada has been one hot potato.

Air Canada enjoyed a definite advantage for many years prior to deregulation. It was protected domestically and internationally. Those less lucrative routes such as Asia were left to CP Air to develop. As Air Canada it developed a very loyal following while protected and once deregulated had the extreme advantage of a developed market. How does an upstart or existing carriers develop a market where there is an established player with deeper pockets. The established player needs only to undercut the competition or even match it and it becomes a game of whoever has the deepest pockets wins. Enter predatory pricing laws. Why should a company sell its product below the cost to provide that product? This is not sustainable and one must draw the conclusion that its only purpose is to drive out competition then raise prices back up to a sustainable level. Predatory pricing - difficult to prove - yes -there for a good reason - you bet. If one company has higher production costs than another and can't compete than the solution should be to become more efficient. The government airline had bottomless pockets prior to deregulation and the unions knew it.

What they didn't understand was that it did not have bottomless pockets post deregulation. I remember many people commenting during deregulation that Air Canada would never be able to compete with private enterprise because the government owned mentality would be one they couldn't rid themselves of. I guess they were right.

Air Canada has definitely been saddled with some disadvantages as well such as language requirements etc. but I believe its developed market share advantages far outweighed any disadvantages (IMHO). (We could probably debate that one til retirement.) This is why it has been such a hot potato. How does the government turn an established and reputable carrier loose on the weaker and developing competition and maintain a level playing field. Difficult to say the least. Perhaps Air Canada should have been wound down as other carriers developed. Perhaps deregulation should never have happened. Perhaps Air Canada should have been broken up and sold off as separate smaller airline s to form a network of competing carriers. All I know is where you are now and where you have to get to and it seems too few of you are realizing too late that the white knight of yesteryear isn't coming. At least not in the way you would hope. We may see here shortly nature take its course and the level playing field everyone wanted will actually exist. Unfortunately a lot of good people will be hurt but you won't be the first. Many have been hurt in this industry before you and have picked up the pieces and done just fine. Hopefully those who deliver the race to the bottom line will learn fast that it is not a race to the bottom but survival and when to make a move for more and when to back off is an art worth its weight in U.S dollars.

I truly desire to see Air Canada survive but a major attitude change will be required. Saying good riddance to most of the outsourced unions would be a good start. I think most on this forum realize this but is this a true sampling of the general population of Air Canada? In any event it may be too little too late. I hope I am wrong and good luck.

[Arctic Ace]

Hi Don

Although we have all enjoyed taking pot shots at the government, particularly the minister of transport, through this whole fiasco one must admit that the airline portfolio in Canada is not one I would have wished on my worst enemy. Since deregulation the question of how to handle Air Canada has been one hot potato.

Air Canada enjoyed a definite advantage for many years prior to deregulation. It was protected domestically and internationally. Those less lucrative routes such as Asia were left to CP Air to develop. As Air Canada it developed a very loyal following while protected and once deregulated had the extreme advantage of a developed market. How does an upstart or existing carriers develop a market where there is an established player with deeper pockets. The established player needs only to undercut the competition or even match it and it becomes a game of whoever has the deepest pockets wins. Enter predatory pricing laws. Why should a company sell its product below the cost to provide that product? This is not sustainable and one must draw the conclusion that its only purpose is to drive out competition then raise prices back up to a sustainable level. Predatory pricing - difficult to prove - yes -there for a good reason - you bet. If one company has higher production costs than another and can't compete than the solution should be to become more efficient. The government airline had bottomless pockets prior to deregulation and the unions knew it.

What they didn't understand was that it did not have bottomless pockets post deregulation. I remember many people commenting during deregulation that Air Canada would never be able to compete with private enterprise because the government owned mentality would be one they couldn't rid themselves of. I guess they were right.

Air Canada has definitely been saddled with some disadvantages as well such as language requirements etc. but I believe its developed market share advantages far outweighed any disadvantages (IMHO). (We could probably debate that one til retirement.) This is why it has been such a hot potato. How does the government turn an established and reputable carrier loose on the weaker and developing competition and maintain a level playing field. Difficult to say the least. Perhaps Air Canada should have been wound down as other carriers developed. Perhaps deregulation should never have happened. Perhaps Air Canada should have been broken up and sold off as separate smaller airline s to form a network of competing carriers. All I know is where you are now and where you have to get to and it seems too few of you are realizing too late that the white knight of yesteryear isn't coming. At least not in the way you would hope. We may see here shortly nature take its course and the level playing field everyone wanted will actually exist. Unfortunately a lot of good people will be hurt but you won't be the first. Many have been hurt in this industry before you and have picked up the pieces and done just fine. Hopefully those who deliver the race to the bottom line will learn fast that it is not a race to the bottom but survival and when to make a move for more and when to back off is an art worth its weight in U.S dollars.

I truly desire to see Air Canada survive but a major attitude change will be required. Saying good riddance to most of the outsourced unions would be a good start. I think most on this forum realize this but is this a true sampling of the general population of Air Canada? In any event it may be too little too late. I hope I am wrong and good luck.