ACE ( Air Canda Stock)

[Guest]

Resounding success. Unfortunatly none of the labour unions agreed.

Great way to make money.

Lets hear it for unions.

[Canus Chinookus]

please tell us more! we sit on the edge of our computer chairs!

[Guest]

Ace stock is up about 6 bucks since it opened.

And you guys had a chance to buy into it?

[Canus Chinookus]

Dear James, don't forget to sell high.

BTW, is this the stock you meant?

http://www.advfn.com/quote_Air-Canada_TSE_AC.html

If not, this is just a friendly reminder to sell high.

[Guest]

Try this.

http://www.tsx.ca/HttpController?GetPage=Q...oteSymbol_1=ace

[Seeker]

Here's a beautiful sight...

http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest...long_movement=0

[Don Hudson]

I believe I posted early in the year that once the deal was done, we'd see double-digit stock prices and double-digit profit numbers.

We'll see where the percentages go in the long run. As Clive has already proven, prediction and bragging are hazardous activities to engage in in the aviation business but when you restructure like ACA did, both the numbers and the forces just seemed to be there to drive the price and likely the profit figures.

While none of us relished handing over between 4% (and in flight crews' cases up to 45% ) of our wages and benefits and none of the creditors or lessors liked the drubbing any better, its seems to be working at least in the very short term. Ain't bragging, ain't predicting a year from now, but the market seems to like what we've all done. So far.

[dagger]

I believe I posted early in the year that once the deal was done, we'd see double-digit stock prices and double-digit profit numbers.

We'll see where the percentages go in the long run. As Clive has already proven, prediction and bragging are hazardous activities to engage in in the aviation business but when you restructure like ACA did, both the numbers and the forces just seemed to be there to drive the price and likely the profit figures.

While none of us relished handing over between 4% (and in flight crews' cases up to 45% ) of our wages and benefits and none of the creditors or lessors liked the drubbing any better, its seems to be working at least in the very short term. Ain't bragging, ain't predicting a year from now, but the market seems to like what we've all done. So far.

I can't disagree, Don, except that the stock is up on hope. The whole profit thing will take a year to prove out. The forecast $1.6 billion EBITDA was done before crude went through the roof and before AC decided to expand its capacity next year by adding EMB-175s a year early and those eight or so used international widebodies. Some of the automation pieces are taking a bit longer to put into place, in part because of security issues, and the whole international fare rollout contains a risk as to how fast the market will embrace it. So I still look on 2006 as a bit experimental, with a lot of great things for travellers and aviation geeks, lots of hardware, new routes, new commercial concepts, new amenities. The airline will be profitable, but there is so much out there - crude oil, terrorism, pandemic, overcapacity - that could keep the lid on what should be a fantastic year.

[Don Hudson]

Yep. I couldn't agree more either with your view on "hope" and all the other factors which may derail this or through logs in front of our horses...in a way we're kind of a "young" company right now, with a lot of drive, more smarts than we had, but a LOT of experience under our belt and a vision for both domestic and international service. Bodes well at least from the technical side.

If those factors you mention rain on the parade, they're of course raining on everyone else's as well.

Anyone who's had a bit of experience in the stock market knows all too well that past performance never predicts future patterns so we'll see what twelve months brings and if its still doing well in 24 months then maybe its a pattern. In sixty months, well...I'll be gone in 34 so hopefully it will have become the new established way but that's in the realm of hope, not "pattern".

[Seeker]

Personally, I believe that a lot of time, by a lot of smart people, was put into "The Plan." External factors aside, I would be very surprised if things weren't arranged and organized to show a steadily increasing profit and revenue picture. Things really are improving but the management of investor expectations has not been forgotten. I expect a excellent first 12 months after which too many factors exist to predict.

[Guest rattler]

Of course today's record drop in the price of crude is helping all airline stock out but the TSE is reacting to more than that if you compare how ACE is doing vs WJA

TSE as of close today.

Symbol Price $ Chng % Chng Volume Exchange*

WJA 11.550 -0.180 -1.53 326,389 T

ACE.B 32.500 +0.810 +2.56 490,282 T

ACE.RV 33.090 +1.490 +4.72 1,044,487 T

[Lazionic]

Analysts jump aboard Air Canada

Cherniavsky lifts targets

Mitch Moxley

Financial Post

Thursday, December 09, 2004

"Focus and shrink." That has always the best way for Air Canada to succeed, according to Ben Cherniavsky, an analyst with Raymond James: Focus on markets with high profitability and shrink service to those where profits are squeezed.

And that's exactly what Air Canada is doing, much to the delight of Mr. Cherniavsky. Yesterday, he emerged as one of the most bullish analysts on ACE Aviation Holdings, the holding company for Air Canada, raising his target price by 60% to $40 from $25 and his 2005 earnings per share estimate to $3.75 from $1.50.

"We've seen enough," Mr. Cherniavsky said in a research note. "This stock's a 'buy.'"

The report comes after Air Canada announced another strong month for load factor in November, up year-over-year in all markets it serves. But Mr. Cherniavsky insists other factors led to his new positive view on the company.

He said Air Canada has been aggressively cutting load factor in areas where profits have been hit, particularly in the domestic, Transborder (to the U.S) and Trans-Atlantic markets.

Meanwhile, the airline has increased its focus on the Asian, and Latin and Central American markets by offering greater frequency and direct routes.

Mr. Cherniavsky also noted that although Air Canada's fares remain discounted compared to two years ago, they are moving closer to 2003 levels.

"We believe that Air Canada is (finally) being more disciplined about matching WestJet Airlines Ltd.'s fares rather than aggressively undercutting them."

The airline has also benefited from the rising Canadian loonie and falling U.S. greenback because it has a significant amount of operating expenses, such as interest on aircraft rent, in American funds, he said.

Mr. Cherniavsky isn't alone in the increasingly bullish tone for the stock. For instance, Brian Morrison at TD Newcrest also raised his target price yesterday, increasinging histo $40.50 from $33, based on November's strong traffic numbers and the growing likelihood the airline will monetize Aeroplan, worth about $1.35-billion, in the next 12 months.

But the stock remains a risky investment. Mr. Cherniavsky said much of Air Canada's success depends on whether management remains committed to the "focus and shrink" strategy. Also, the airline still has to overcome service inconsistencies -- something he called "a generally poisoned culture" -- and rebuild bridges it has burnt over the years with customers, employees, media, government and investors.

Other risks include the price of jet fuel, which remains at historically high levels, and an uncertain Canadian economy, he added.

Still, Mr. Cherniavsky is bullish on the airline's earnings potential into 2005, especially after its third-quarter 2004 earnings results, released last month, came in ahead of his expectations.

"Clearly, purchasing Air Canada shares is not for the faint of heart. However, as expressed above, a number of new variables and considerations have tipped us toward the belief that this airline will report a strong year of profits -- its first since 1999 -- in 2005."

ACE Aviation Holdings closed yesterday down 5 cents to $31.96.

© National Post 2004

Link:

http://www.canada.com/national/nati...e1-7740f7822094

[jump seat]

Hmmm I wonder what Jacques Kavafian is thinking these days

[Fido]

This rosey assessment of ACE fortunes is about to take a big turn south. Since the new web interface was loaded last weekend, few people have been able to buy a ticket from the AC website.

[dagger]

This rosey assessment of ACE fortunes is about to take a big turn south. Since the new web interface was loaded last weekend, few people have been able to buy a ticket from the AC website.

There are some selected problems with the odd browser and it might have a small impact, but don't exaggerate. This isn't prime booking season for sched travel. The holiday period is booked, which is why the cutover only came in December.

I've made two bookings, the vast majority of people have made bookings. You can book on destina, sabre, expedia, etc.

[manwest]

Meanwhile over at flyertalk............

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shareholder

Well, I am now able to pull up the home page, work the NAmerican res section, and even log-in [though AC has made me lose 21-years in the process]. However, I still get the same message screen if I try to check out international fares. I get the fare screen for a second or two, then the error message screen.

So I guess I am now like many others who cannot get the international booking engine to work, though I have not forced it by booking on the Multi-Segment Trip link engine. Will try that later.

I, too, have the same problem with the intl round trip function. The multi-segment has worked for me. Quoted me a Q class round trip for YYZ-LHR.

I conveyed our problem to Ben Smith, who then funnelled it through to Lise Fournel. I was called this morning by an IT exec on her team, who took down some additional details and is supposed to get back to me. I'm not holding out great hope because this has happened to me on other websites and the answer usually is that it's too costly to adjust our new site for your archaic operating system.

But let's see............Sebring

[manwest]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shareholder

As for not offering support to MAC Classic, OS9 is not "classic", it is the major operating system on Macs. The universe is only slowly migrating to OSX -- as I will later in the new year. But shows no change in their arrogant attitude, and reflects the two sessions I had with their Tech Support people in the past couple of days.

Guess nothing changes at AC: "Our way of the Highway" otta be their motto.

I took it as more stupidity than arrogance. They really didn't think it through - as usual. I mean they hadn't scoped out any browser but IE 6 and up for all I can tell. Now they are playing catchup, adding other browsers.

But let's face it. The one who really taught the world not to respect Mac Classic was none other than Steve Jobs. The day OS X debuted, Apple cut off any development to support any previous browser. Nothing Apple rolls out today works with OS 9. There no more updates, no nothing. And Microsoft said fine, no updates from us for the Mac Classic world. Everyone is just taking his/her cue from Steve Jobs. I have steadfastly refused to cave in until I fully amortized my 1998 Beige G3, and then some. It will be seven years in June for this machine, and only then will I move into the world of OS X. So up yours, Steve...........Sebring

[manwest]

There are some selected problems with the odd browser and it might have a small impact, but don't exaggerate. This isn't prime booking season for sched travel. The holiday period is booked, which is why the cutover only came in December.

I've made two bookings, the vast majority of people have made bookings. You can book on destina, sabre, expedia, etc.

*But don't exaggerate*

[dagger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shareholder

As for not offering support to MAC Classic, OS9 is not "classic", it is the major operating system on Macs. The universe is only slowly migrating to OSX -- as I will later in the new year. But shows no change in their arrogant attitude, and reflects the two sessions I had with their Tech Support people in the past couple of days.

Guess nothing changes at AC: "Our way of the Highway" otta be their motto.

I took it as more stupidity than arrogance. They really didn't think it through - as usual. I mean they hadn't scoped out any browser but IE 6 and up for all I can tell. Now they are playing catchup, adding other browsers.

But let's face it. The one who really taught the world not to respect Mac Classic was none other than Steve Jobs. The day OS X debuted, Apple cut off any development to support any previous browser. Nothing Apple rolls out today works with OS 9. There no more updates, no nothing. And Microsoft said fine, no updates from us for the Mac Classic world. Everyone is just taking his/her cue from Steve Jobs. I have steadfastly refused to cave in until I fully amortized my 1998 Beige G3, and then some. It will be seven years in June for this machine, and only then will I move into the world of OS X. So up yours, Steve...........Sebring

So this is your big evidence in support of your contention?

Two operators of MAC OS Classic browsers comparing notes?

With all due respect, all MAC Browsers account for two percent of AC online bookings, and over half of that are on Explorer or Netscape and some are using Safari. Some Mac Classic users like myself have had specific but not life threatening problems. Aggravating and unnecessary, but now overcome. Using Netscape, I have no problems. Using Explorer, I can't access an international flight display using the round-trip function, but I have done so through the multi-city display entering just and O&D routing. Otherwise the site works fine for me, and I'm on OS 8.6, a browser which came out in 1999 and hardly anybody uses. Just to satisfy myself, I just went back and changed a future booking - which I will change back again - and encountered zero difficulty.

[manwest]

Theres more than two complaints and you know it you've complained on flyertalk yourself, why the about turn???? Or will this question go unanswered like so many others??

Quote

*I took it as more stupidity than arrogance. They really didn't think it through - as usual. I mean they hadn't scoped out any browser but IE 6 and up for all I can tell. Now they are playing catchup, adding other browsers.*

[dagger]

Theres more than two complaints and you know it you've complained on flyertalk yourself, why the about turn???? Or will this question go unanswered like so many others??

Quote

*I took it as more stupidity than arrogance. They really didn't think it through - as usual. I mean they hadn't scoped out any browser but IE 6 and up for all I can tell. Now they are playing catchup, adding other browsers.*

No about turn. Context. Macs account for two percent of the hits on ac.com. or so IU was told today. Of those, over half are from the Safari or other OS X browsers. Most of those lingering complaint involves older, non-supported browsers like mine. We may be talking about less than 1 percent of the hits. Even at that, I've been able to access all but one display - and I have made bookings and changed bookings with my antiquated technology: a six year old Mac with a five year old operating system and four year old browser. And strangely enough, my Netscape 6.2, another supposedly non-supported browser, is working fine. It's not like there aren't problems, and yes, I am frustrated at the stupidity of it all, but at the end of the day I must recognize that I am bailing out a very small lifeboat and most of the other passengers are high and dry. My personal issues, and the issues of a relatively small portion of the AC audience, don't necessarily constitute a broad-based crisis, just a dumb planning assumption that I contest, but will ultimately lose, especially since I am losing access or functionality at other websites left and right with my old tech and will be forced to upgrade my technology next year anyway.

[manwest]

No about turn. Context. Macs account for two percent of the hits on ac.com. or so IU was told today. Of those, over half are from the Safari or other OS X browsers. Most of those lingering complaint involves older, non-supported browsers like mine. We may be talking about less than 1 percent of the hits. Even at that, I've been able to access all but one display - and I have made bookings and changed bookings with my antiquated technology: a six year old Mac with a five year old operating system and four year old browser. And strangely enough, my Netscape 6.2, another supposedly non-supported browser, is working fine. It's not like there aren't problems, and yes, I am frustrated at the stupidity of it all, but at the end of the day I must recognize that I am bailing out a very small lifeboat and most of the other passengers are high and dry. My personal issues, and the issues of a relatively small portion of the AC audience, don't necessarily constitute a broad-based crisis, just a dumb planning assumption that I contest, but will ultimately lose, especially since I am losing access or functionality at other websites left and right with my old tech and will be forced to upgrade my technology next year anyway.

First of all thanks for a polite response.

I guess posters here can swing over to flyertalk and read the posts for themselves.

I hope AC can get this fixed quickly as they are losing bookings. What did Robert say at his meeting in Toronto .....*AC gets 60% of their bookings online.*

I'll give you credit for trying to keep a positive spin on this for AC.

[CanadaEH]

I can't disagree, Don, except that the stock is up on hope. The whole profit thing will take a year to prove out. The forecast $1.6 billion EBITDA was done before crude went through the roof and before AC decided to expand its capacity next year by adding EMB-175s a year early and those eight or so used international widebodies. Some of the automation pieces are taking a bit longer to put into place, in part because of security issues, and the whole international fare rollout contains a risk as to how fast the market will embrace it. So I still look on 2006 as a bit experimental, with a lot of great things for travellers and aviation geeks, lots of hardware, new routes, new commercial concepts, new amenities. The airline will be profitable, but there is so much out there - crude oil, terrorism, pandemic, overcapacity - that could keep the lid on what should be a fantastic year.

Any losses posted by Air Canada would somehow be played down to be evidence of its ongoing recovery, right? Meanwhile, Westjet's first quarterly loss in company history would no doubt signal that Westjet is in big trouble. Funny how these things work...

[dagger]

Any losses posted by Air Canada would somehow be played down to be evidence of its ongoing recovery, right? Meanwhile, Westjet's first quarterly loss in company history would no doubt signal that Westjet is in big trouble. Funny how these things work...

I agree with WS it will have a different impact, but with AC, it will still have to show significant year over year improvement if it wants to keep the shine on the apple.

[Don Hudson]

CanadaEH;

I don't get involved in these kinds of discussions any more but something kind of made me pause in your one remark, "Any losses posted by Air Canada would somehow be played down to be evidence of its ongoing recovery, right? Meanwhile, Westjet's first quarterly loss in company history would no doubt signal that Westjet is in big trouble. Funny how these things work... " and I will be the first to grant you that it is unimportant in the larger picture, but really now..., wasn't this table turned only a few short months ago when WS could do no wrong in the media and Air Canada caused the hurricanes in Florida, typhoons in Taiwan and everyone's hangnails to boot?

Before hackles are raised however, what this is about is not media "darlings" at all but media sales and Air Canada is currently riding high while WS is beginning to exhibit signs of the traditional difficulties any airline runs up against sooner or later as it matures.

Stories of the heros and the villians (or the sad-sacks or the unlucky or whatever ) sells papers and air time, and the pens and the talking heads are as fickle as a penny stock market. And where are the experts? With few exceptions, they're like sociologists..always affirming the obvious. There's no story here unless its a mock story of "come-uppance", which Canadians, unlike Americans, don't really cotton on to too well and I don't blame them one bit. While the media plays at this, we in the industry and especially those who've been down, know better.

We all have our successes and we all have our dog days in aviation. The trick in this business is to have more successes than dog days and the best trick is to never brag or complain when they come along. WS is a great competitor and perhaps for the first time since de-regulation we just may have the hint of a good and balanced competitive domestic market. Could it be that the Transport Ministers knew what they were doing all along?

Who knows about this business? One never really knows...one only gets "experience". But in a couple of year's time we'll know at least the outline of what the last decade has produced. In the meantime, we're going to give Westjet a run for its money just like a good competitor should and then the cycle will go round and round again just like it has for almost 70 years now.

What I can't figure out is how LeBlanc continues to escape either end of the media attention span.

kind regards,

Don