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  1. I predict the pilots will go on strike or will be locked out as the company will not give in, Transat is in a survival mode now hence the sale of French and Greek operations, they might as well put the whole company for sale now before it gets much worse. The Canadian industry outlook is very weak and I suspect Transat is in deep trouble with their fuel hedges, huge losses on US dollar expenses, immense downward pressure on revenues while Air Canada, WJ and Sunwing are adding even more capacity. There has to be consolidation in Canada, I think Transat will not survive, it will be interesting to see if Porter folds down or is taken over too.
  2. Its due to the share buybacks, they have bought 1 million shares since 2Q report, I guarantee you the shares would be down today if it wasn't for the buybacks, they bought 117,000 shares today. Westjet still has 2 million shares to buy so hopefully they finish that off in this quarter, its a good value to the shareholders, if the shares remain undervalued they should announce new buybacks together with the Q3 report.
  3. I guess there will be a union at WestJet after all, a quorum of 35 per cent of the pilots in the proposed bargaining unit must cast votes in order for the vote to be valid. If that quorum is met, then the union will be certified if more than 50 per cent of those pilots who voted cast a “yes” vote. I thought CIRB made changes to make it harder to get a union but under this rule 220 pilots or just 17% of total need to vote "yes"
  4. The closing date for the transaction was 31 Jan, there is some speculation that Jetlines had a hard time raising $50 million, does anybody have any news on this IPO?
  5. http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1453549/inovent-files-preliminary-prospectus VANCOUVER, Nov. 26, 2014 /CNW/ - Inovent Capital Inc. (TSX Venture – IVQ.P, "Inovent") and Canada Jetlines Ltd. ("Jetlines") announce the joint filing of a preliminary long form prospectus with the securities regulatory authorities in the Provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Nova Scotia in connection with a public offering of common shares (the "Shares") of Inovent (the "Offering"). The completion of the Offering is subject to a minimum subscription for aggregate gross proceeds of $50,000,000, subject to an over-allotment option. The Offering is being made in conjunction with an amalgamation of Inovent and Jetlines which, if completed, will constitute Inovent's Qualifying Transaction (the "Transaction") in accordance with the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV"). The Offering will be led by AltaCorp Capital Inc. and Euro Pacific Canada Inc. as co-lead agents and joint bookrunners. Final pricing and determination of the number of Shares to be sold pursuant to the Offering and over-allotment option will occur immediately prior to the filing of the final long form prospectus in respect of the Offering. Jetlines is a private aviation company with an overall business plan to commence domestic scheduled point-to-point air service in mid-2015 from a base at the Vancouver International Airport. Jetlines will apply an ultra-low cost operating model that focuses on generating new passenger demand from what management believes is currently an unserved market of price sensitive customers in Canada. Jetlines intends to select routes which avoid direct competition with currently operating airlines (where possible) and focus on cost discipline in order to keep operating costs low.
  6. In the past year Beddoe sold 2.1 million shares at average $28, out of those just in the last 8 trading days he sold 600,000 shares at $31 a piece, Beddoe still has 1.4 million shares left but he was still selling as of yesterday, also Mr. Matthews was a heavy seller as he unloaded 1 million shares at $28. Interesting trading today with such a positive announcement and oil down/CND flat, airline index up and the volume of WJA just disappeared and the shares are down, this happens to WestJet shares every time. Since WestJet announced the current NCIB they only bought back less than 200,000 shares, 10 % of the maximum while 6 months have past by, this inaction together with the heavy insider selling is what keeps the shares artificially low. Among large cap North American airlines WestJet is the worst performing stock, unbelieviable for a company that places near the top in every measure that investors look for, one has to take a longer term view to be rewarded.
  7. Markets are irrational, you'd think that WestJet should be a little less volatile having a stellar balance sheet, etc, this is 3rd 20% correction in the last 18 months and the stock rallied back even higher each time, somebody must be making a killing pushing that stock low like that. There is very little market depth for WestJet shares and thus they can be manipulated, there are many reasons for that behavior and any new or even intermediate investor should be very careful when making bets in the stock market. Just as an example of one manipulation recently is a market maker selling $500,000 worth of call options for WestJet a couple of months ago. WestJet shares needed to be higher that $28 at the end of next week to avoid the 100% loss on that investment, now the shares are below that level meaning that whoever sold those options keeps the $500,000, not bad for a couple months work.
  8. I don't think the reason for the expansion/jet proposal is what Porter say it is, the real reason in my opinion is that Porter wants a takeover by WestJet and will take a look only after Porter gets the approval. In a recent interview on BNN Gregg was asked about Porter, he didn't completely rule out the possibility of a takeover but said WestJet has chosen a go it alone route, Gregg knows very well how the game is played, he knows Porter is on the ropes and wants to get the best deal for WestJet's investors. Investment bankers pitching for Porter know that the price WestJet is willing to pay is much lower than they hoped for and only if the whole expansion/jet proposal goes through. That's why you see Porter working so hard on this, it's Porter investor's last chance to cash out.
  9. Just when Air Canada has put its threatening pension deficit behind it, the sudden fall of the Canadian dollar has thrown the airline another curve ball. We have a massive exposure to the U.S. dollar,” said Calin Rovinescu, Air Canada’s chief executive officer, after a speech at the Canadian Club of Montreal. Fuel is Air Canada’s single largest expense. It represented 30 per cent of the airline’s costs in the first nine months of 2013, and it’s sold in U.S. dollars. So are the planes that Canada’s biggest carrier has been eagerly ordering as it seeks to renew its fleet with fuel-efficient jets. In December, Air Canada bought 61 Boeing 737 Max planes, a $6.5-billion (U.S.) firm order at list price. That is on top of the $750-million the carrier officially spent on five new Boeing 777s last year and the close to $5-billion paid for 37 Boeing 787 planes. “The kind of precipitous drop that we have had in the last little while is significant,” Mr. Rovinescu added. Just how big a hit the currency will be won’t be discussed until Air Canada releases its full-year results on Feb. 12. The Canadian dollar has fallen sharply in a short time, closing around 90 cents Monday compared with around 94 cents at the start of the year and above 97 cents a few months ago. Air Canada shields some of its fuel purchases against unforeseen price increases, but those hedges typically cover only about 35 per cent of the airline’s fuel purchases, Mr. Rovinescu explained. Air Canada only had “minor” protection against adverse currency movements, the CEO said. And once the loonie started falling, it was too late to shelter the carrier any further, he added. In its 2012 annual report, Air Canada estimated that a $0.01 change in the value of the Canadian dollar would have a $33-million impact on its yearly operating income. “The sensitivity would be slightly different in 2013, but I don’t believe significantly so,” noted Cameron Doerksen, transportation analyst at National Bank Financial. Air Canada’s cost projections for 2013 were based on a U.S. dollar worth $1.03 (Canadian), whereas the greenback now trades at about $1.11. Moreover, Mr. Doerksen added, Air Canada’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars, so the conversion in Canadian dollars will increase the carrier’s debt levels and interest expenses, absent any hedges. The Montreal company has been trying to pass along some of its additional costs to vacationers. As of Monday, Air Canada Vacations added a $35 surcharge to the trips it sells to offset the cost of purchasing hotel rooms in the pricier greenback. But the carrier has held off on slapping a currency surcharge on its plane tickets. “Fares are market-driven, and we will see how the situation plays out over the next coming weeks,” Mr. Rovinescu said. This setback comes as the airline has staged a huge comeback after flirting with bankruptcy protection in 2009, when Air Canada’s heavy pension deficits threatened to pull the company under. At their peak those deficits reached $4.4-billion, Mr. Rovinescu pointed out in his speech. Air Canada now expects its pension plans to post a small surplus as of the start of this year, a spectacular turnaround that is attributed to employee concessions, a rebounding stock market and higher interest rates. “I would have thought that it would [have] taken us another year or two to get there,” he noted. Regarding Air Canada’s planned purchases of single-aisle jets, Mr. Rovinescu said the carrier’s Montreal neighbour, Bombardier Inc., is vying for that order to bolster the order book for its new commercial mainliner C Series. Air Canada should make its decision before summer comes, Mr. Rovinescu repeated, and the C Series’ latest delay will have little impact on its choice. “It is going to be a good airplane no matter what. Delays in and of themselves are not a factor for us at this stage,” Mr. Rovinescu said, adding that there are “about 150 drivers” to Air Canada’s decision.
  10. WestJet Airlines Ltd will ramp up the operations of its new regional subsidiary in 2014 even as it looks to carve out additional cost savings, its chief executive said on Tuesday. Canada's No. 2 carrier launched its subsidiary Encore, which flies smaller turboprop planes, in June and plans to grow its operations across the country and possibly into the United States in 2015. Encore's fleet of Bombardier Inc's Q400 NextGen turbo prop aircraft is expected to hit 16 next year. WestJet initially ordered 20 Q400s from Bombardier, with an option for 25 more. "Next year, 2014, will be the year where we're going to have to start making some decisions on the first of those 25 options," CEO Gregg Saretsky told Reuters, adding that the company hopes to announce Encore's next expansion at its annual meeting in Toronto in May. Calgary-based WestJet is mounting a challenge to Air Canada, the country's dominant carrier. Saretsky said WestJet is also eyeing slots at LaGuardia in New York City and Reagan National Airport in Washington, vacated by American Airlines and U.S. Airways after the two airlines agreed to sell gate slots at half a dozen airports in exchange for government clearance to merge. EUROPEAN EXPANSION WestJet will test the highly-competitive European market next June, with its first trans-Atlantic flight to Dublin, a busy battleground for Canadian carriers. The new route is a litmus test for WestJet's expansionist ambitions. Saretsky said the 737-700 narrow-body planes it will fly are particularly suited for Northern European destinations like the United Kingdom, Ireland, Scandinavian countries and some of northern Continental Europe. The carrier has already held talks with Boeing Co and Airbus about buying wide-body planes, which are better suited for long-haul flights, he said. But the airline is only in the exploratory, data collection phase, Saretsky noted, adding that a decision could happen as early as next year or as far out as seven years from now. Even as it expands, WestJet still expects to hit in 2014 a C$100 million cost savings target it set for itself a year ahead of schedule, Saretsky said. The chief executive said he planned to push for additional cost savings. "I think we have to," Saretsky said. "Airlines that stop looking for cost savings are the ones that invariably fall into trouble."
  11. I hope WestJet will be bidding for the slots at Reagan, they haven't made any official statements, would they be included in the bidding process?
  12. Spirit saw its shares up 140% this year so a little pullback is healthy. On Tue WestJet Q3 results are out, its shares have been underperforming NA airlines this year, having been the second worst performer. Expectation is for Q3 EPS of 48 cents, I think they will beat on top and bottom line, they beat EPS in every quarter anyway. WestJet have been reducing CASM more than anticipated, also revenues from premium are above a target range, Encore's traffic is strong, etc, they got so many other things going on for them to boost EPS. This company still gets no respect from the market, WestJet is trading at a big discount to its peers or industry, it has superior performance in every financial measure and has the best growth and strategy going forward. Will have to stay patient for a couple more years and let the share price catch up to where it should be.
  13. Westjet continues to build their cash balance and will soon top $1.5 billion which is way over their target range, over 2 months ago Westjet announced share buybacks and so far they bought back small amounts. I really wonder what are they saving the cash for if not for the buybacks or increasing dividends, they got the financing for expansion already, over $800 million from EDB and at very low rates so it would make sense to use some cash for an acquisition and grow the company. I think it would be a great idea and very rewarding for the shareholders. http://business.financialpost.com/2013/04/17/porter-airlines-takeover-speculation/
  14. Lol, Robert on Dulce on BNN Business Day asked about the financing for the expansion and he says they have none, Bean is right, looks like Porter investors are getting desperate with time running out before Encore takes them out. Getting the jets on the island and extending the runway is impossible, people will never allow that to happen.
  15. AC cash stands at $2,026 B, down to 16.7% trailing revenue and getting close to 15% minimum target, the trend is negative and there are large incerease in expenditures in 13', pension payments up, debt and interest payments up, etc. Sure the're working on achieving reductions but this is not enough and the company is not sustainable IMO. With or without gov't intervention they have to reorganize, get leaner, especially now with Encore starting up AC cannot just match thier prices and lose more money, Encore will have a huge cost advantage. I wonder if bankrupcy is still possible with AC, 1Q 13' doesn't look good and the 2nd is also a tough quarter, they will bleed more cash and they don't have much room to manouver, and now all the flight cancellations on top of everything, how can they survive in this tough business, I think they will reorganize next 1-2 years.
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